Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
