A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
